| The wireless industry is changing. It has been over the | | | | marketplace will look like an 80-20 split over the next |
| last 25 years and continues to reinvent itself. It is | | | | several years. 80% will be smart phones and 20% |
| currently in the process of transforming and you may | | | | regular handsets. Regular handsets will get smarter. |
| not recognize it over the next five years. What will it | | | | They will do simple tasks like sending email and text |
| look like going forward? | | | | messages and even search the web for basic |
| First it is important to recognize that we really cannot | | | | functions. However there are still two definite groups. |
| tell the direction of the industry beyond the next | | | | Currently in the US the smart phone marketplace is |
| several years. So much depends on new technology, | | | | about 40 million and is expected to exceed 125 million |
| government involvement, and where new demand | | | | over the next few years. Truthfully I expect it to |
| takes us. However the change over the next several | | | | surpass that as it approaches the 80% of the |
| years will be amazing. | | | | marketplace area. |
| So much of this change will impact the workforce in | | | | As I said before we don't know what the industry will |
| wireless. It is important to know the direction the | | | | look like 10 years from now. This projection is over the |
| industry is heading in. To know where we were, where | | | | next several years. Beyond that who knows. |
| we are today, and where we are heading tomorrow | | | | Until now the competitors like AT&T, Verizon, Sprint, |
| to make sure you are in the growing part of the | | | | T-Mobile and others focused on several areas for |
| business. | | | | growth. One of those areas is becoming less relevant. |
| Over the last few year's smart phones are rapidly | | | | There are very few first time cell phone users |
| taking over the handset market. Just a few short | | | | anymore. There are almost 300 million phones in the |
| years ago smart phones were a smaller segment for | | | | United States. Some of us have more than one, but still |
| business users led by companies like Rim Blackberry | | | | you can see how the marketplace is pretty full. There |
| and Palm. Then about 4 years ago Apple jumped in | | | | are very few first time customers left. |
| with the iPhone and suddenly smart phones are the | | | | Now the companies are competing with each other |
| fastest growing part of the industry with tens of | | | | for the existing customers. That is healthy for the |
| millions of devices being sold to consumers as well. | | | | consumer because carriers focus on services and |
| Once the consumer marketplace got on board | | | | price and keeping customers happy and delighted. In |
| something else happened with smart phones. The App | | | | this marketplace wowing a customer is still magic. |
| stores exploded. There were just a few hundred | | | | The next big opportunity is the wireless web. That is |
| Apps until the iPhone a few years ago. Now there is | | | | exploding thanks to the smart phone market. As much |
| somewhere around 150,000 and still growing rapidly. | | | | as we love today's new smart phone apps, they are |
| The App sector is suddenly becoming very large and | | | | just the first course in a very long meal. In other words |
| very strong. Today's apps are new and fun, but | | | | it only get's better. |
| tomorrow's apps will do important things for us like | | | | Some new opportunities may not last as long as we |
| activate our home alarm and change television | | | | think. An example is the Netbook computers. When |
| channels. | | | | they came out I didn't get it. They are still selling and I |
| During the last few years many competitors like Nokia, | | | | still don't get it, but I would predict they are a limited |
| Samsung, LG, Motorola, HTC and others are jumping in | | | | opportunity and may not even continue at some point. |
| with their devices and they keep getting better and | | | | Suddenly carriers are successfully selling wireless |
| better. | | | | access points so your laptops can get Internet access |
| Even Google is getting into the wireless space working | | | | without plugging the laptop in. Will these last or will they |
| with many handset makers on the Android platform. | | | | be short lived? |
| They are even rolling out their own Google handset | | | | One of the really new and very exciting areas of |
| and may transform the industry the way Apple is | | | | growth for the industry isn't even being talked about |
| doing. | | | | much. Wireless carriers are working with other |
| Microsoft Windows Mobile is also proving to be a | | | | companies and industries to drag them kicking and |
| successful player. Dell computer is also entering the | | | | screaming into the wireless century. |
| wireless space. | | | | This is an enormous opportunity for the entire industry. |
| Suddenly some of the biggest names in the wireless | | | | The networks have dedicated people in place to tap |
| industry are not wireless companies. What will that | | | | this new opportunity. This is a great opportunity going |
| mean for growth going forward? | | | | forward. |
| Sales of regular handset sales have slowed during the | | | | In the same pattern, wireless opportunities will expand |
| last year or two thanks to the economy. Smart | | | | in other industries. Other companies will need wireless |
| phones are exploding however. What does this mean | | | | specialists to bring their own wireless future online. |
| for the industry? | | | | This is part of today's wireless story. It continues to |
| In the beginning the smart phone sector grew from 5% | | | | grow and change very quickly. Yesterday's |
| - 15%, but suddenly it is growing to the 50% level and | | | | opportunities are slowing down, but tomorrow's |
| even greater. Some carriers like AT&T that focused | | | | opportunities are just catching steam. Being able to tell |
| on the smart phone category over the last few years | | | | which of tomorrow's opportunities will be long term is |
| may be as high as 60% - 70%, however the carriers | | | | the challenge. Making sure you continue to work in the |
| don't discuss numbers in detail. | | | | segment that is growing is the challenge for all. |
| At this point I would say the best guess is the | | | | |